by Register for CNNS Wonder Theory Science Newsletter. Explore the universe with news about fascinating discoveries, scientific progress and more.
A collision between our Milky Way and her largest neighbor, the Andromeda galaxy, which is predicted that astronomers appear in about 4.5 billion years, has been expected from astronomers since 1912. But new studies suggest that the probability of this galactic conflict, which is called “Milkomeda”, is smaller than it seems.
At first glance, it is likely that the galactic duo-von is around 2.5 million light years separately on an inevitable collision course. The Milky Way and Andromeda race at around 223,694 miles per hour (100 kilometers per second).
However, the local group or our corner of the universe comprises 100 well -known smaller galaxies. A team of astronomers took into account some of the largest among them, including the large Magellan cloud, LMC and M33 or the Triangulum Galaxy to see how much they could play in the chess of the future of our galaxy in the next 10 billion years.
After the team was found in the gravity of local group galaxies and 100,000 simulations with new data from the Hubble and GAIA world space telescopes, the team found that there were about 50% chance in the next 10 billion years of collision between the Milky Work and Andromeda. According to the study published on Monday in the Nature Astronomy magazine, there is only about 2% chance that the galaxies will collide in 4 to 5 billion years.
A merger of the Milky Way and the Andromeda Galaxies would destroy them both and finally transform both spiral structures into an elongated galaxy, said the authors of the study. It is known that collisions between other galaxies “cosmic fireworks, when gas that is driven in the middle of the fusion residue, feeds a central black hole that gives an enormous amount of radiation before it is irrevocible,” said Coauutor Carlos Frenk, professor at Durham University in England.
“Until now we thought this was the fate that was waiting for our Milky Way,” said Frenk. “We now know that there is a very good chance that we can avoid this scary fate.”
However, there are many unknown factors that make it difficult to predict the ultimate fate of our galaxy, according to the authors of the study. And Frenk warns that the Milky Way has a greater chance of colliding with the LMC within 2 billion years, which could fundamentally change our galaxy.
Simulating galactic collisions
The LMC revolves the Milky Way, while M33 is a satellite of Andromeda.
The mass of the LMC is only about 15% of the milky ways. However, the team found that satellite galaxy has a gravitational train that is pulled vertically to Andromeda and the movement of the Milky Way changes enough to reduce the likelihood of a merger between the two huge galaxies. It is a similar case for M33.
“The additional mass of Andromeda’s satellite galaxy M33 draws a little more,” said Dr. Till Sawala, astronomer at the University of Helsinki in Finland. “However, we also show that the LMC pulls the milky way away from the orbital level and Andromeda. This does not mean that the LMC will save us from this merger, but it makes it a little less likely.”
Earlier studies have also accepted the most likely values for unknown data, such as: B. the uncertainties in the present positions, applications and masses of the local group galaxies. In the new study, the team made up 22 different variables, including these strangers who could contribute to a collision.
“We carried out many thousands of simulations that enabled us to take all observational uncertainties into account,” said Sawala. “Because there are so many variables that their mistakes, which accurately accuracy of the result, have a very great uncertainty, which leads to the conclusion that the likelihood of a direct collision within the next 10 billion years is only 50%.”
In a little more than half of the simulations that predict what could occur in 8 to 10 billion years, the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies first sailed a little closely past each other before they circled and then lost enough orbital energy to collide and merge as a galaxy. These initial tight encounters between the Halo of the individual galaxy – a large envelope curve – would ultimately lead to a collision.
Three pictures show different scenarios of how the Milky Way and Andromeda Galaxies could interact in the future. Two spiral galaxies pass at the top left. At the top right two spiral galaxies are closer together, whereby their invisible gas neck interact. The lower picture shows the collision of two spiral galaxies, which leads to an X-shaped patch. – NASA/ESA/STSCI
“In general, the merger would most likely contain a strong starburst in which many new stars would form, followed by a time of intensive radiation, which is caused by exploded young stars and the newly active super massive black hole and finally closes the star formation,” said Sawala. “A few billion years later, all traces of the former Milky Way and Andromeda would disappear, and the remnant would be a largely inappropriate elliptical galaxy.”
In the other simulations, both galaxies crossed the paths without disturbing each other.
Geraint Lewis, professor of astrophysics at the Institute for Astronomy at the University of Sydney, finds the results that show the gravitational influence of M33 and the LMC interesting. Previously, he wrote research on a potential collision between Andromeda and the Milky Way.
“We will not know whether the collision will definitely be eliminated in the future, but this clearly shows that the story that people tell – that there will be a collision that will destroy the Milky Way and Andromeda – is not so clear or certain that people think,” said Lewis. “But even if there is a pretty close encounter instead of smashing head -on, the grabiss that everyone claims to each other will probably leave the two great galaxies in a sad condition.”
Prediction of the cosmic future
While it is important to form the gravitational effects of the LMC on the Milky Way, the examination of uncertainties is the most important aspect of the new study, said Scott Lucchini, a post -doctorate at the Institute for theory and Calculation of the Center for Astrophysics, Harvard & Smithsonian.
“Here you have scanned the uncertainties in the positions, speeds and masses of the galaxies to get the relative probabilities of different results,” wrote Lucchini in an e -mail. “This really gives us the whole picture of what could happen in the future.”
Galaxies are full of subtleties. Your shapes can be distorted, interactions can change your orbits and you can lose the mass in different ways. Such complexities make it difficult, said Lucchini.
This essentially leaves the fate of the Milky Way “completely open”, wrote the authors of the study in the new work.
However, further data from the GAIA world space telescope in the summer of 2026 will provide measurements that refined some of the uncertainties about the speed and direction in which Andromeda moves over the sky, said Sawala.
The fate of the earth
According to the researchers, the fate of the sun can have a greater influence on the future of the earth than the movements of the galaxies.
Our sun is 4.5 billion years old. If it begins to die in another 5 billion years, according to NASA it becomes a red giant that swells, Venus and possibly earth.
“The short answer is that the end of the sun for our planet is far worse than the collision with Andromeda,” said Sawala. “Although this merger would mean the end of our galaxy, it would not necessarily be the end of the sun or earth. Although our work also shows that earlier studies that were supposed to predict exactly what the fate of the solar system after the merger, generally premature, generally, collisions between stars or planets that are in a galaxy galaxy galaxy galaxy galaxy -Galaxy ends on the sun.
While the team did not model a fusion between the LMC and the Milky Way in detail, it found a “virtual security” that a merger between the two galaxies will occur within the next 2 billion years when it comes to previous research work, said Sawala. However, the effects will probably be minor than a merger between the Milky Way and Andromeda.
“The merger (between the Milky Way and the LMC) will not destroy our galaxy, but it will change it deeply, in particular the effects on our central super massive black hole and the galactic halo,” wrote Frenck in an e -mail. He also served as a co -author in a 2019 paper about the potential fusion.
More CNN messages and newsletter create an account at CNN.com
